A and B are independent witnesses in a case, the chance that A speaks truth is x and B speaks truth is y If A and B agree on certain statements, the probability that the statement is true is
Step-by-step Solution:
Concept:
Let A1, A2, ..., An be n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events of the sample space S, and A is an event that can occur with any of these events. Then:
Calculations:
Consider K as the event that both A and B agree.
Let T be the event that both A and B speak the truth:
\[ P(T) = xy \]
Let L be the event that both A and B lie:
\[ P(L) = (1 - x)(1 - y) \]
To find: The probability that the statement is true:
\[ P(T | K) \]
Since K is the event that both of them agree, we use Bayes' Theorem:
\[ P(T | K) = \frac{P(T) P(K | T)}{P(T) P(K | T) + P(L) P(K | L)} \]
\[ P(T | K) = \frac{xy}{xy + (1 - x)(1 - y)} \]